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How far can we forecast the weather?

A forecast can lose the path of a storm and still predict a wetter week. What we can say depends on the scale, the lead time, and the question.

12 min read Main illustrated tour 4 min of optional notes and a live model

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NASA's Blue Marble composite showing ocean and cloud over the Americas.
Blue Marble, a composite released in 2002. NASA

Notes and a live model

Optional history, the evidence behind forecast horizons, and a model of sensitivity to initial conditions.